Tesla Stock [TSLA] Is Basically Worth $0 If True Full Self Driving Isn’t Achieved

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The editor facet of me that may be very targeted on utilizing exact language really disagrees with that assertion within the headline, and stating one thing like that irritates me a bit of bit due to that, however it’s hyperbole to make an vital level. And it captures the important thing challenge I wished to handle on this article following different discussions this previous week. Additionally, it doesn’t come from me. Elon Musk said it (video here) in barely completely different phrases almost two years in the past, in 2022. “The overwhelming focus is on fixing full self-driving … it’s actually the distinction between Tesla being value some huge cash or value principally zero.” I used to be reminded of this by a bullish Tesla follower who posted it on X earlier right now.

“The overwhelming focus is on fixing full self-driving…it’s actually the distinction between Tesla being value some huge cash or value principally zero”.

– @elonmusk, 2022 pic.twitter.com/6DR1oYSyy7

— Techgnostik ???? (@Techgnostik) April 16, 2024

This will get to the #1 challenge many people following the corporate and the inventory [NASDAQ:TSLA] have to begin with when discussing these issues. Tesla is a vastly profitable automaker, however its future — particularly as a publicly traded inventory — is being guess on robotaxi-level Full Self Driving, and significantly a particular strategy to that purpose which is much exterior the norm within the business.

Should you observe discussions of TSLA bulls, it’s principally all about this now. It’s all about Tesla FSD attending to robotaxi functionality. The humorous factor is, that quote above might equally be utilized by bulls and bears to bolster their perspective. They each assume the quote is ideal to make their case. The facet you might be on all comes right down to religion. I perceive there are tech individuals who don’t assume it’s a matter of religion, who assume it’s a easy matter of apparent technological progress. I feel it’s very clearly a matter of religion at this level. And by “religion,” I imply one thing that we will’t know by way of logic proper now. Individuals have sturdy opinions on whether or not Tesla’s strategy will work or not, however nobody actually is aware of — it’s all religion and hope and guessing on one facet or the opposite. Nobody has charted this path, it’s new territory, and so we will’t actually say the place it’s going. It’s not the identical as one thing like ChatGPT, which has loads of margin for error with out being clearly harmful/lethal.

Taking a look at X/Twitter this morning, I noticed quite a few posts by TSLA shareholders who assume anybody who doubts Tesla on the matter of FSD is an fool or a minimum of completely lacking what’s about to occur. I do know different tech folks (together with readers) who know much more about tech than me who additionally place confidence in the strategy, even when they don’t see its success as so imminent. Personally, I’ve misplaced religion in Tesla’s strategy. I don’t assume the {hardware} is enough and I don’t assume the idea behind Tesla FSD — or how one can obtain robotaxi-level FSD — is the proper one. I used to place confidence in it, however the logic I’ve adopted as we’ve discovered extra has made me change my opinion, so I’m in all probability in a a lot smaller boat than most. (I feel most individuals who believed in it years in the past nonetheless consider in it, and most of the people who didn’t nonetheless don’t.) Even when the strategy will not be going to work, in fact, I feel Tesla, significantly Elon Musk, has sunk a lot into this perception that they received’t let go of it anytime quickly, if ever — and as Musk implied, I feel that would sink the inventory. I undoubtedly do have an open thoughts about it and would definitely not be upset if Tesla might obtain its purpose! Simply because I’ve an opinion on one facet or the opposite doesn’t imply I’m not open to being improper. Sadly, for a lot of followers of the corporate, it’s important to be “all in” a method or one other. You must absolutely consider and guess your own home on it, or it’s important to absolutely deny the likelihood that Tesla might have the plan right and that it simply wants a bit extra time.

I feel the explanation for this “all or nothing” fashion of debate is each due to how a lot cash has been poured into TSLA and due to how polarizing Elon Musk is. Lots of people have put a big portion of their cash into the corporate — whether or not that’s a couple of thousand {dollars} for a “regular” individual or billions of {dollars} for a billionaire or a fund managing billions. As a result of a lot is on the road, you get huge arguments, seemingly non secular divides, and grandiose statements just like the one above (that Tesla is “value principally zero” if FSD doesn’t pan out). As I famous the opposite day, Tesla still has a market cap as large as several other larger automakers’ combined. If FSD doesn’t work as supposed, it’s extraordinarily laborious right now to make an argument that Tesla shouldn’t have a P/E ratio just like these different firms, so it’s laborious to say the inventory received’t implode.

It’s all about FSD robotaxis working or not. What has maybe modified on the floor recently is that this has change into extra apparent. Any distractions, pretending, or rationalizations that the inventory value is about different issues — like fast-growing gross sales that aren’t depending on robotaxis — have fallen by the wayside. Any “critical Wall Road skilled” who has difficult spreadsheets justifying TSLA being a “purchase” has to chop the crap and are available to grips with the truth that whether or not TSLA is a purchase or a promote depends on Tesla’s FSD strategy to robotaxis being proper or improper. Both the emperor has no garments, as they are saying, or folks don’t perceive what’s coming with FSD briefly order, quickly, possibly this yr.

So, cash out there, discussions across the firm and the inventory, and emotions about the way forward for Tesla have all gotten extra risky, extra full of life, and rather more closely waited. Individuals must give attention to this one key matter and decide a facet — is Tesla value half a trillion {dollars} (its market cap right now), 3 trillion {dollars}, or zero (or, with rather less hyperbole, maybe one thing like $50 billion)?