Tesla Autopilot Crash Data Shows Little To No Improvement For 2023

Tesla not too long ago launched a brand new replace to its Car Security Report, revealing knowledge for all 4 quarters of 2023.

The voluntarily printed quarterly reviews embrace the variety of miles pushed per accident registered when utilizing Autopilot expertise, not utilizing Autopilot expertise, and the U.S. common (the latest knowledge out there from NHTSA and FHWA for calendar 12 months 2022).

The info offers us glimpses of how Autopilot improves automobile security, nevertheless it has some limitations (extra on that on the backside of this publish) as a result of methodology. For instance, Tesla counts all accidents, whatever the trigger, even supposing greater than 35 % of all Autopilot crashes happen when the Tesla automobile is rear-ended by one other automobile, the corporate says.

In response to Tesla, the variety of miles pushed per accident registered in 2023, when utilizing Autopilot expertise, various from 5.18 to six.18 million miles pushed.

The outcomes are blended—21% worse than a 12 months in the past in Q1, 21% higher in Q2, 6% worse in Q3 and 11% higher in This autumn. In different phrases, we won’t actually say that there’s a clear, constant, and noticeable enchancment.

With out utilizing Autopilot expertise, Tesla autos statistically notice extra accidents—from 1.00 to 1.52 million miles pushed per accident registered.

Not solely that, the outcomes have been worse than in 2022 in every of the 4 quarters of 2023 (Q1 down 9%, Q2 down 5%, Q3 down 11%, and This autumn down 29% year-over-year).

There’s a vital distinction between the 2 modes of driving (with or with out Autopilot) and the distinction continues to extend. Nevertheless, we should notice that the 2 knowledge units shouldn’t be in contrast in opposition to one another, apart from offering us with some thought of the numbers.

It is vital to notice that the outcomes are comparable solely inside a specific class (Autopilot or with out Autopilot), not between the classes because the enter knowledge may be extensively totally different (like easy freeway driving or complicated metropolis driving). In different phrases, we will solely see whether or not the energetic security programs are bettering over time (and it is also solely a tough comparability), however we won’t examine Autopilot to non-Autopilot driving.

We assume that the right use of Autopilot improves security, however Tesla’s report doesn’t enable us to guage the distinction.

Beneath we connected a full chart with all numbers offered by the producer plus NHTSA and FHWA knowledge concerning the common distance between an vehicle crash in the US.

The distinction is fairly enormous, however as soon as once more, we should not examine the numbers straight. The U.S. common features a a lot older automobile fleet (with fewer security programs), which alone is a giant issue. The U.S. common is 0.670 million miles (as of 2022 since there isn’t any data for 2023 but).

Tesla has its personal model of the chart:

Vital components:

• knowledge for every setting may be collected at totally different driving eventualities (like easy freeway driving or complicated metropolis driving), which makes the outcomes incomparable between the classes
• outcomes may be affected by numerous components, together with seasonality (diminished daylight, climate circumstances), much less driving throughout lockdown
• NHTSA and FHWA common for the U.S. (up to date not often) contains all vehicles, additionally previous
• Tesla’s data concerning the methodology of registering accidents:
  “We acquire the quantity of miles traveled by every automobile with Autopilot energetic or in guide driving, based mostly on out there knowledge we obtain from the fleet, and accomplish that with out figuring out particular autos to guard privateness. We additionally obtain a crash alert anytime a crash is reported to us from the fleet, which can embrace knowledge about whether or not Autopilot was energetic on the time of impression. To make sure our statistics are conservative, we depend any crash by which Autopilot was deactivated inside 5 seconds earlier than impression, and we depend all crashes by which the incident alert indicated an airbag or different energetic restraint deployed. (Our crash statistics aren’t based mostly on pattern knowledge units or estimates.) In apply, this correlates to almost any crash at about 12 mph (20 kph) or above, relying on the crash forces generated. We don’t differentiate based mostly on the kind of crash or fault (For instance, greater than 35% of all Autopilot crashes happen when the Tesla automobile is rear-ended by one other automobile). On this manner, we’re assured that the statistics we share unquestionably present the advantages of Autopilot.”
• assuming the methodology was not modified, we will see how every class improves over time