How Much My Tesla Model 3 Depreciated In 4 Years

We used to provide loads of whole price of possession analyses for the Tesla Mannequin 3 and different electrical automobiles, however particularly the Tesla Mannequin 3. One thing I realized from that’s that one of many largest price of possession elements — or the most important — is depreciation. Or on the flip facet, you might say resale worth if you ultimately promote your automobile. You subtract that determine out of your authentic buy worth to give you that enormous possession price. (You even have so as to add issues like curiosity in the event you financed the automobile, gasoline/electrical energy, upkeep prices, insurance coverage, and many others.) When it got here all the way down to it, large variations in whole price of possession had been typically as a result of totally different assumptions relating to depreciation/resale worth.

Early analysis within the first few years after the Tesla Mannequin 3 arrived did certainly present a lot decrease depreciation, or higher resale worth, than competing low-end luxurious vehicles just like the BMW 3 Collection. However depreciation is one thing that may range over time fairly a bit primarily based on totally different macro or firm elements. For instance, resale worth was tremendous excessive (generally larger than authentic buy worth) when there have been the entire provide chain disruptions from COVID-19. Nonetheless, on the similar time, in the event you bought or traded in your automobile when these resale values had been excessive, you additionally had to purchase a automobile with jacked-up costs (except you weren’t shopping for one other automobile). So, frankly, it’s a really difficult matter.

With all of that in thoughts, after practically 4 years of possession (~10 days away), I can lastly see what my 2019 Tesla Mannequin 3  Customary Vary Plus’s depreciation is over a reasonably lengthy interval of possession (effectively, not lengthy, however not tremendous brief). I used to be lately intrigued by the non permanent choice to commerce in my Tesla and have Full Self Driving (FSD) transferred to a brand new one. (Traditionally, FSD, or any Autopilot add-on, sticks with the automobile — you may’t switch it to a brand new automobile.) That is solely out there this quarter, and I’ve been questioning whether or not to make use of the chance — I’ll write extra about that quickly. So, I went into my native Tesla retailer and requested for an estimate on what the trade-in worth of my Mannequin 3 could be (you may’t get that on-line except you proceed with an order and pay a nonrefundable deposit). I used to be a bit shocked to listen to that my 2019 Mannequin 3, with simply over 38,000 miles (fewer than 10,000 a yr), had an estimated trade-in worth of simply over $20,000. And as I perceive it, that’s in a finest case state of affairs — in the event that they discover any points past primary put on and tear, it is going to presumably be decrease. That appeared a bit low to me, however …

I purchased the Mannequin 3 for $47,190 when all was mentioned and finished (see above). Being price simply over $20,000 at present (no less than, when it comes to a Tesla trade-in provide), it’s now at 42% of its preliminary worth. So, it has seen 58% depreciation. Apparently, that’s only a bit greater than I used to be estimating for a $40,000 Tesla Mannequin 3 SR+ after 5 years in TCO analyses I’ve dug up. We’ll see what the trade-in worth is in a single yr (presuming I don’t commerce it on this quarter), however I don’t anticipate it to drop much more than it has to date (which is one motive I lean away from buying and selling it in now).

All of that mentioned, that’s not fairly proper. As you may see above, $6,000 of that authentic worth was for FSD, and as you’ll keep in mind, the rationale I used to be wanting into this was as a result of I might switch FSD freed from cost this quarter. So, really, we should always chop $6,000 off that worth. Which means depreciation was really 51.5% … for this one quarter. In actuality, FSD has not held worth effectively in any respect to date, and my understanding is that Tesla doesn’t give it any worth on a trade-in. As it’s possible you’ll recall, Elon Musk has spoken fairly a bit about Tesla vehicles with FSD appreciating in worth as soon as FSD is robotaxi-capable … however we don’t know when or if that may really be the case.

We’ll see how this evolves. I believe I’m fairly unlikely to commerce in my Mannequin 3. I had initially deliberate to maintain it for a very long time — perhaps even until the top of its helpful life — and I assume the trade-in worth received’t drop much more within the subsequent a number of years if I determine afterward that I wish to commerce it in. However we’ll see. As at all times, I worth CleanTechnica reader ideas, so tell us what you consider this!


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